Arun Raha, Executive Director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, released his preliminary June forecast. The entire text with graphs can be found clicking this (link).
Below is the key text about what is expected to happen with the state economy:
Even though the state economy has performed close to what we expected in March, the weaker national recovery will be felt here as well.
That being said, we continue to be optimistic in the outlook for key Washington industries. The aerospace sector has added 3,500 employees since last May, regaining more than half the 6,000 jobs lost from February 2002 through May 2010. We believe the aerospace sector will continue to add jobs as Boeing ramps up production on all five models of commercial aircraft, an increase of more than 40% during the next two years.
The software sector is also growing again and has now recovered 40 percent of the jobs lost (peak to trough) in the recession. Microsoft will also enhance its compensation package in fiscal 2012. We do not have any specifics on this but we have assumed an increase of 7% in average compensation in the software sector compared with an estimated 3% in FY 2011.
We believe we are near the bottom in construction employment but we do not expect a quick recovery. Recent weak housing and nonresidential construction data confirm the lackluster outlook for this sector. Overall, the state’s economic outlook is for slightly less growth than assumed in the March forecast.
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