From Stark
Although polls indicate a big win for Mitt Romney in the Tuesday, Jan. 31 Florida primary, it doesn’t appear likely to be a knockout blow to Romney’s rivals.
As the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake explains, that’s partly because of new rules on how delegates are allocated after primary results. Florida and the contests that preceded it are not winner-take-all events. At this point, even a big win in Florida would give Romney only a small fraction of the delegates he needs for the nomination. GOP leaders cut Florida’s delegate total to 50 because the state defied their wishes and moved the state’s primary up to January.
Newt Gingerich appears to have plenty of cash left in his campaign warchest, –USA Today reports– and Ron Paul’s backers make up in zeal what they may lack in numbers. The Post report says the Paul faction hopes to head to the convention with enough committed delegates to have an impact on the GOP’s positions on key issues.
I’m inclined to agree. Add in the fact that Florida was penalized by the RNC for moving its primary up. It really just depends on what kind of “momentum” can be generated from individual states anymore. There doesn’t seem to be a hard and fast rule this time around for that though. Each win seems more to motivate the loser than the winning base.
But, perhaps a tipping point could emerge: Is the first candidate to win and win big in two states finally going to be adopted by a bunch of undecided voters? Romney has accomplished something of lasting significance in his appeal to the Latino community — without sounding like he was pandering. Still, Cuban-Americans aren’t necessarily the same as the Hispanic community in California.
And lest we over-look the obvious: Winning in Florida is still a big (expensive) deal.
There are some that feel as I, that what we are witnessing in our current political battles by both the republicans and democrats today was well predicted by Thomas Jefferson:
“There are many things obvious to ordinary Americans that cannot be mentioned publicly in the polite political company of the Republican and Democratic establishments or among their press agents in the mainstream media, who obligingly pirouette around the truth…..
For example, both the Republican and Democratic establishments are composed of hopelessly corrupt, procrastinating control freaks, who seek fame and fortune through over-spending money they didn’t earn and enthusiastically crushing any spontaneous outbreaks of democracy among U.S. citizens…
Thomas Jefferson warned us of the danger of “elective despotism:”
“They should look forward to a time, and that not a distant one, when a corruption in this, as in the country from which we derive our origin, will have seized the heads of government, and be spread by them through the body of the people; when they will purchase the voices of the people, and make them pay the price. Human nature is the same on every side of the Atlantic, and will be alike influenced by the same causes. The time to guard against corruption and tyranny, is before they shall have gotten hold of us. It is better to keep the wolf out of the fold, than to trust to drawing his teeth and talons after he shall have entered.”
Unfortunately, the wolf is already in the fold….
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/01/our_elective_despotism.html
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
Your first quote is not Jefferson, of course.
Stark?
you say “…Florida and the contests that preceded it are not winner-take-all events…”
did you mean “…Florida and the contests that preceded it are not ALL winner-take-all events.” ???
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Republican_primary,_2012
I believe that FLA is winner take all, but penalized to have less delegates, due to their date of vote.
@ Richard–I was going by this excerpt from the WaPo story:
“In the run-up to the 2012 election, the Republican National Committee changed its delegate rules so that no state that holds its contest before April is allowed to award all of its delegates to the winner; instead, it must allocate delegates on a more proportional basis, which makes it much more difficult for a front-runner to rack up a huge early advantage.”
But a New York Times report agrees with you and Wikipedia.
John and Richard, you’re both right. As of now, Florida is winner-take-all, but any delegate–from any state–may request a revisiting of that up until a week prior to the GOP convention this summer. At that point some GOP poohbahs will make a final determination. If the race is a runaway, no challenge, but if it is close, I cannot see that opportunity being missed. The opportunity is part of a second bite at the penalty apple for Florida, since they moved the caucus date–and changed the apportionment of delegates–yet again in contravention to GOP dictates.
John; correct!
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!