From Stark
New district boundaries for Whatcom County Council and Port of Bellingham commission seats will be explained at a public forum scheduled for 10 a.m. to noon Saturday, Oct. 1 in the meeting room at Bellingham Public Library, 210 Central Ave.
The changes include a complex shuffling of Bellingham precincts and the shift of western Lynden (the west of Guide Meridian portion annexed into the city since the 2000 census) from County Council District 3 to County Council District 2.
The Bellingham shifts are complex. Here’s a map to help you figure out who your port commissioner and county council representative will be after the shift.
Here’s a map for Lynden as well.
As of this morning–Thursday, Sept. 29–details on the changes were not yet available. I’m expecting to get a peek at the districting committee’s work before the end of the day.
Four members of the districting committee–Hue Beattie, Charlie Crabtree, Kelli Linville and Robert Thorndike–were appointed in January 2011 by the County Council. That was a couple of months before Linville announced her mayoral candidacy.
Those four members then named former Whatcom County Superior Court judge David Nichols as their chairman and fifth member.
Western Washington University mathematics professor Tjalling Ypma was appointed districting master to work with the committee on the numbers.
The Districting Committee used 2010 census data to redraw the boundaries.
A rough estimate – but District 1 is, in essence, gaining perhaps 2,600 voters who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 to the tune of 82 percent of the ballots cast.
It seems to me Dist. 1 becomes even more solidly Democratic, whereas District 2 becomes even more solidly Republican.
I’m not so sure on District 3. I am theorizing both parties might view it as a toss-up district, but to be honest, moving Precinct 206 to District 1 is a big hit to Democratic/liberal candidates. For perspective, Dan McShane took about 69.4 percent of the vote in that precinct in 2009 versus County Councilwoman Kathy Kershner.
What this seems to show overall is that the rural and small city areas (and the north side of Bellingham) definitely gained quite a bit of population over the last decade, with District 2 and 3 able to sustain a healthy voter base without needing to balance that out by drawing the County Council precincts into the very heart of Bellingham’s downtown.
These districts are drawn based on population as opposed to the whacky way our state districts are being assessed by very partisan folks on both sides.
There appears to be less gerrymandering going on in this proposal (if at all), and the numbers are simply dictating the lines. That’s very interesting.
I’m not sure if I can come up with a conclusion, though my gut reaction is to think that District 2 and 3 are more likely for at least the next decade to be conservative-leaning districts, whereas District 1 may very likely become quite solidly liberal. I have to think that if Carl Weimer leaves the council his District 3 seat is more likely to go to someone supported by the Whatcom County Republican Party. He won his seat by 835 votes in 2009. Just based on the hypothetical of how the results may transfer with these changed districts, Weimer would have 357 fewer votes in a rematch if Precinct 206 is removed. It lowers that margin even more. A non-incumbent Democratic candidate is unlikely to have as much support as a sitting council member like Weimer has had unless local Democrats can severely energize their base.
Nearly 60 percent of Precinct 205 also voted for Weimer in 2009, and maybe a little more than 1/3 of that precinct would now be in District 1 under this proposal. Some 57 percent of Precinct 204 voted in favor of Weimer in 2009, too, but approximately 80 percent (simple eyeball guess here) of that precinct now shifts to District 2.
I’d love to know what both political parties think about this proposal.
Also, that proposed shift for Lynden’s Precinct 601 is not very much of a change, as there were only 56 registered voters in that precinct during this August 2011 primary. I assume that’s why they saw it as a harmless change.
Hey, thanks Sam. What do the rest of you think of this analysis?
As you may guess john, I’s be out of town and me opinions will be delayed but IMHO district divisions has very little impact as long as we have county/city wide voting(of which I oppose because of my support of diversity) in the general.
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
John,
Thanks for covering this while I was on vacation.
Jared