By John Stark
Historian Allan Lichtman brushes aside the polling data and political strategy chatter when he comes up with his own predictions of presidential election outcomes. As of this year his winning streak has extended to eight.
In this report from NPR, Lichtman explains how major economic and political trends seem to correlate with election outcomes for the party that holds the White House.
“Focusing on the campaign is like focusing on the froth of the wave, instead of the wave itself,” Lichtman tells NPR.
Read more about Lichtman’s methodology here on Wikipedia.
What do you think? Among other things, I’m wondering if this methodology could be tweaked to predict Bellingham and Whatcom County elections. I’m thinking it probably could.