By Ralph Schwartz
The first story to come out of Election Day 2012 was that it was good for Democrats. They retained the presidency and the Senate, and they took back a few seats in the House, which however remained a Republican majority. The oft-repeated phrase in the immediate aftermath of the election was that Republicans would need to do some “soul searching” to figure out how they could have lost to a vulnerable president in the midst of a bad economy — and to figure out how to even remain relevant. That soul searching, some said, would have to be about the belligerent stance Republicans took toward women’s issues, particularly contraception and abortion. (Women, the reasoning went, make up roughly 50 percent of the electorate.)
Even a man once prominent in the Republican Party (but now a pariah, I would imagine) sees a vein of racial intolerance in the current GOP.
There were suggestions also that billionaires would do some soul searching of their own, given their paltry return on investment with groups such as Karl Rove’s American Crossroads. (As the linked article says, American Crossroads spent $104M on campaigns, about 1 percent of which was spent successfully, opposing two losing candidates.)
Since early November, a new narrative has emerged about how the Republicans won the 2012 election, and how that supposedly ineffective super PAC money was put to good use after all.
By the looks of these later stories, the question journalists began to ask was, “How did the GOP retain a 33-seat majority in the House of Representatives while getting 1 million fewer votes in House races than Democrats?”
The above-linked column from the New Yorker, dated Jan. 10, follows closely this ProPublica investigation from December into how conservative groups funneled large amounts of money into state races, establishing Republican majorities in state houses, leading to redistricting of congressional districts in ways favorable to Republican congresspeople.
Leave it to Nate Silver of the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog to put some numbers on the phenomenon. The number of true swing congressional districts, where the winner takes the race by 5 points or less, has dropped by two thirds in 20 years. Now, a majority of districts are landslide districts, where the winner had a 20+ point margin in 2012. That’s twice as many landslide districts than 20 years ago.
The bottom line in a lot of these recent stories about how the Republicans won the House: Because more Republicans are coming from districts carved out to be conservative, they face no serious threat from the left. If anything, they have to keep a far right challenger at bay, by taking extreme positions on spending and taxing. When this group gets into the mix in Congress, there is little potential for meaningful negotiation and compromise with Democrats.
In short, conditions are right for another do-nothing Congress.
Good summary. Dems have noone to blame but ourselves for lack of organization that allowed gerrymandering and its aftermath.
The R’s kept the house, though less of it, because of a lot of bass ackwards communities and counties kept their radical, ignorant ands nearly brain dead representatives who won promoting economic ignorance, fear and intolerance to their cracker constituents —and the north county certainly qualifies in that category.
To suggest here that organization was a problem is a reasonable sounding supposition by someone who hasn’t been here long enough to know the history here and the depth of radical right wing thought that plagues the north county, but to those who have been here it can sound just uninformed.
I wasn’t suggesting anything. I was making a joke for joking’s sake. That’s part of my snarky approach to this blog that people have embraced with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The joke is as follows: “I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat.” Nothing about Whatcom County was intended. Nothing about anything was intended. Also, to clear up any confusion, my allusion to this joke, which was on a Facebook post, was associated with a link to my blog entry on the county Democrats electing officers — not this post. Anyhow, if there is overwhelming call for me to be more politically correct, I suppose I’ll give it a shot.
Please do not become more politically correct, Ralph. Gerrymandering is a huge problem in the United States. When 53% of the votes for House went to Democrats and Republicans miintained control by a large margin, something is badly wrong. How’s that for one man one-vote? Even in states such as ours with bipartisan redistricting commissions, incumbents are protected. Democrats are both complicit in and complacent about what has happened. And they will be stuck with the current boundaries for 9+ years. if the Democrats could seize more of the state houses and legislatures before the next redistricting, don’t expect them to be more fair than the Republicans have been
Much of the gerrymandering has been to lessen the impact that minority voters have on results. The Justice Department has cracked down on some states, but needs to do more.
It is too busy prosecuting whistleblowers, leakers, and hackers, but never a banker, an oil company executive, or a war criminal
Actually Ralph, if you were responding to me, I was responding to Terry and should have used the @.
I Have no problem with snark, sarcasm, satire, and feel it is a breathe of fresh air. I may use it back at you sometime, but I do appreciate your posts and whatever tolerance you can find for those who are heart sick at just how wacky the US has become…at least half of it, and say so in strong terms.
As I have been traveling in Micronesia, the Phillipines and parts of Asia lately, I have been just flabbergasted at the fact of how many of the average people in the world get
most of their understanding of the US, hence a delusional clueless one, as Fox News is everywhere and usually the best reception and only US news of any (I cringe saying it since it is not really true)…depth. CNN out of Hong Kong is not much better. I so long for a fix of MSNBC…
Also the satellite wifi and Internet serving so much of this part of the world is pre-Colombian….might as well be trying to send code knocking rocks against coconuts. But earlier in the day is best I’ve been told, so actually getting a few e-mails out and getting past a Google search of the Herald before maxing out feels like Christmas.. A very hot humid one… But the diving is great. adieu.
Hank, you’re right, I haven’t lived here that long. And I’ve lived a lot of places. And it’s a big country. And I was referring to the whole country (there is one outside your little world in northern Whatcom County). What Bob said.
Ralph, I love snark. Go for it.
@Hank thanks for the clarification. No matter; if I peddle in snark, I should be prepared to take a few hits anyhow. If you get around to it, send us a postcard…
@Hank @Terry on the topic of journalists and snark, I came across two stories on the Web that touch on why journos are unsure of themselves when it comes to showing their lighter side:
Craig Kanalley, HuffPost, “Are Journalists Joking Too Much on Twitter?” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-kanalley/journalists-joking-twitter_b_2535813.html
Mathew Ingram, gigaom, on the firing of a journalist over something overheard at GOP convention: “Why Can’t We Just Admit That Journalists are Human?” http://gigaom.com/2012/08/31/why-cant-we-just-admit-that-journalists-are-human/
@Terry…my little world in north Whatcom? it’s yours to deal with too. And since we have talked on occasions and I appreciate your opposition to the terminal, plus we both are part of the same professional community, though our fields are different, I was. Just making a general statement about what a small minded little corner of the world this is in certain places. But I apologize if you took me as snarky, many do our kind. jokes about our field are tops on the hit charts.
But as I travel widely, I view the world as my world and as I travel outside the US extensively, the look back is often troubling and disappointing and I can state unequivocally that the self image many Americans have is little more than uninformed ego.
@Ralph….I take hits for snark all the time, but snark and the exchanges it inspires brings out a deeper understanding on all sides if one recognizes their own and views it as just sarcastic humor as I do. Plus, when people get testy they often reveal much more of use to really get I get the flavor and the experience behind their views.
As for the post cards, well I would love to share more of my travels and experiences because they often are relevant to local and global/US politics and were well received by some of the regulars, but I tried that for a while back when and it was often deleted for being off topic by the power that was.
Snarkyness on the Politics blog? Absurd, impossible,…wonder of wonders….
@Camille…what ever became of the other Mousketeer of old. I guess citizens move around just like Deadhead fans. “As I was walkin round Grovesnor Square….she? wore scarlet begonias, tucked inside her curls….”