By Ralph Schwartz
In predicting the results of the presidential election, some pundits hit the bull’s-eye, and some were way off the mark.
Predictions of the Electoral College vote count varied greatly, as depicted neatly on this dartboard graphic.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight was right on the mark. He got every state right, except that Florida hasn’t been called yet. In fact, Florida is as close as Silver predicted; he gave Obama a 50.3 percent chance of winning that state.
The guy who runs “UnSkewed Polls” didn’t hit the board. He might want to consider a different name for his operation.
Nate Silver of the New York Times 538 does run a very fine analysis of political polls. How can any of them have credibility with 9% response rates?