By Ralph Schwartz
The election is coming up fast, so this might be my last chance to post before the results are in.
(OK, I started off being disingenuous already. The election isn’t coming up fast. It’s coming excruciatingly slowly. I’m even resenting the extra hour we get this weekend at the end of daylight saving time because that’s one more hour to wait before this is all over.)
So on the Friday before Election Day, let’s go out on a limb and predict who is going to win the presidential race.
Some people might be in it for the policies. I’m in it for the horse race.
(Another parenthetical needed: The pick I am about to make is not an endorsement. It’s just playing a hunch.)
So with the horses in the home stretch, what are the odds?
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is revered for seeming to be able to read the real meaning of polls with his secret mathematical formula. He’s also maligned for going public about supporting Obama in 2008, so some figure his vaunted formula is tilted in the sitting president’s favor.
Think of him what you will. The graphs on his website show steady gains for Obama since his standing slipped immediately after the first debate on Oct. 3. After dropping to just a 2-to-1 chance of winning the Nov. 6 election, Obama’s back up to 4-to-1 (80 percent chance of winning) today.
But I’m going to buck Silver’s wisdom and predict a Romney win. I’m going on the hunch that these polls of “likely voters” aren’t accounting for the enthusiasm gap. Fewer Dems will show up at the polls in the key swing states, and Republican angst over what has happened in this country over the past four years will drive them there.
Assuming I’m right on my first prediction, let me make a few more.
Most of the people who said they would move out of the country if Romney won … won’t.
Romney will have to work with a divided Congress — Dems still in control of the Senate (or at the very least having filibuster power), so the first two years at least of his term will be marked by little or no significant legislation. Congress will continue to enjoy approval ratings in the tweens.
Romney and Ryan won’t create 12 million jobs in four years, but the economy will grow, slowly but steadily, owing to forces far outside the executive branch’s control.
If Romney/Ryan do get to make any meaningful changes — tax reductions coupled with reductions in government services — then some people will benefit, and most people should go unharmed.
Anyway, here’s hoping I’m wrong about the do-nothing Congress, and the next four years are the beginning of a new era of post-partisan congeniality in which everyone sets aside petty political differences and has the good of the whole nation in mind.
(Give me a break. We’re on the eve of an election here. It’s like spring training at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ camp. Anything is possible.)
Wow ralph you went out on the limb this time, “Nihil Gloriae Sine Fortitudinem”!
I agree on the R turnout, and because of it, by the time our polls close the presidential race will be over, the question will be control of the senate while the house will remain in the R’s hands. Even if the R’s take control of the senate it won’t be filibuster proof.
Our founders wanted divided government and we will be getting it again, the O failure was his inability to work with the other side, Romney if he is to be successful will have to work with the other side, the O never showed prior to coming into the Whitehouse that he had those traits and obviously has proven a failure there, Mitt did do it in Mass, so the question will be; can he do it again.
If he doesn’t, IMHO he will be a one termer just as the O was.
On Nate Silver after this election the only question that will be asked is; Who’s he?
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
Not to contradict anything you say, AFY–but from what I read, John Boehner also had trouble working with the other side–the other side of his own party.
“Enthusiasm gap” seems a misnomer. More accurate, Democrats’ disdain for Romney simply fails to match the prejudice and hatred felt towards Obama by the self righteous wing.
You contradict me? never!
I would love to see a new speaker of the House but I just don’t much have hope in that. But we could go back in history and find that JB thought he had a deal with both his side and theirs and it was the O that blinked first IMHO.
But no matter who is elected, the fiscal cliff is still there, 16 trillion in debt is still there, 25 million unemployed is still there, etc etc and these guys and girls have better start getting their crap together and soon, and if they don’t and the major parties can’t, then even I would concede third parties may be our only route and those in power now need all to go!
However this election is about direction more than anything else, don’t ya think?
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
I think Ralph is off, Obama will cruise to victory for his second term. It won’t be the landslide we saw last time, but it will be a clear victory.
Ralph is right that the Dems will hold onto the Senate and the GOP will hold onto the house. However, there will be a revolt within the Republican leadership as the Tea Party’s influence is marginalized, and there will be an effort to wrack up a few legislative accomplishments so as to highlight some of the Republican rising stars in preparation for the next presidential race. This will lead to some bipartisan efforts being made on immigration, and probably, marriage equality.
Washington will be thrust into the spotlight as our marijuana legalization effort makes us ground zero for a chaotic Supreme Court case. The Roberts Court comes down in favor of states rights (with Scalia and maybe Thomas joining the more liberal members of the court) and says that states may choose to legalize possession in small amounts provided it does not cross state borders.
Finally, Mitt Romney goes back into the world of high finance and makes a ton of money. Paul Ryan continues to serve in Congress and is on the short list for the presidents race in 2016 which will draw Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist and probably Jim DeMint into a pitched battle against Andrew Cuomo, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren.
Gallup seems to back up Ralph;
36% R & 35 D in 2012, where in 2008 it was 39% D & 29% R and 2004 it was 39% R and 37% D. And their polling is also showing a large lead for Romney over Obama with independents.
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
Ralph: Despite the disappointment of the 1992 NLCS I have remained a fan. Likewise I am sure your prediction about people leaving the USA will be similar to my loyalty to the Bucs.
Just finished “The Price Of Politics” by Bob Woodward. It makes clear that Boehner and Cantor both were open to compromises, but kept getting blindsided by bureaucrats in the West Wing (who swayed O as well). Boehner was also very pressured by tea party Congresspeople. Kyl (R-AZ) was apparently the bad boy, walking out of meetings and such. However, seems the biggest bad boy was Rahm Emmanual (sp?), whose attitude was f[orget] the Republicans.
There’s another, unspoken issue that helped propel O to the White House: there were enough people, whether D, R, I, etc., who knew better than to allow Sarah Palin anywhere near the nuke missle firing button. How are those people voting this time?
I’ve got a bet with a friend that this election will be decided by the Supreme Court.
Pascha, I fear you may be correct about another Supreme Court election, but I hope you are wrong. This would be horrible for the national political environment, no matter who comes out on top this time.
Yes–and that is why we need a president who is strengthened by the election results–not a president anointed by five judges on the Supreme Court, and trying to govern a nation where half the public questions his right to the office. We need a president strong enough to hammer out a deal on these largely self-inflicted political-fiscal crises.
“Just about everybody agrees Washington is a gridlocked mess. But who’s the man to fix it? After two years of brawling and brinkmanship between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, more voters trust Mitt Romney to break the stalemate, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows.
Romney’s message — a vote for Obama is a vote for more gridlock — seems to be getting through. Almost half of likely voters, 47 percent, think the Republican challenger would be better at ending the logjam, compared with 37 percent for Obama….
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/2012/11/01/who-can-fix-political-gridlock-poll-favors-romney/q4CIaUfxBSKhbz4LOt3ycK/story.html
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
I said in 08 that whomever won was going to be a 1 term president due to the nature of this last recession and that it was going to be a slow climb out of the hole. I agree with you on voter enthusiasm and will be very surprised if Obama wins simply due to the fact that sitting presidents don’t get re-elected when unemployment is high.
That said, I’m surprised Obama ‘appears’ to be in the drivers seat and I think it is nothing short of a major catastrophe for the GOP if they lose this one.
I think the best analogy I’ve heard about this presidential race is (cleaned up version)…..It’s going to be like having to decide if you’re going to eat cat poop vs dog poop…..either one, it’s gonna be hard to swallow.
Ralph,
Thanks for the insight into the mind of a die hard republican.
“angst over what has happened over the last four years”…
Really.
Angst over ending a war, capturing/killing Bin Laden, averting a sure depression, passing major healthcare reform helping millions?
What, exactly, is it that you seem to think is deserving of such angst??
PS.
I talk to a LOT of people, not surprisingly a good percentage of them liberal, and I’ve not heard ONE say anything about moving out of any country. I think righties think people say it and you all assume they do, so you accept it as fact and repeat it (very common) They don’t.
Nate’s and all the other polls showing President Obama with a significant lead in the swing states, and therefor the electoral college will once again hold true.
As a matter of fact, as pointed out, the gap is widening since Obama’s landslide victories/schooling in the last two debates.
Mitt trying to stay relevant during the hurricane crisis by buying canned food (Red Cross doesn’t want, have to ship sort and take valuable time/workers away from immediate needs)for a photo op, has been laughable.
The President, meanwhile had sent more first responders BEFORE the hurricane hit than was sent by three days AFTER Katrina hit. He’s been universally praised for his leadership and action during the crisis. We all are aware of how Christie praised him, and Bloomberg endorsed him over his leadership.
Four more years is practically assured.
And like Nate Silver, if anyone’s interested, I’d put a friendly wager on it.
Perhaps, loser stops posting here?? (AFY.. you interested??) : )
Millions still without power.
Millions still without shelter.
Millions still without food……
BUT here’s what CNN reported two days ago when O & Christie walked along the [former] Jersey Shore:
Obama also made sure his role in the federal response to the disaster was well publicized.
How Romney, Obama adjust to stormRomney: Storm will be a ‘difficult time’
Before heading to New Jersey, he visited the Federal Emergency Management Agency to meet with officials coordinating federal efforts. After his tour, Obama spoke of a 15-minute rule he imposed that requires federal relief officials to respond for calls for help from local authorities within that time period, adding that “if they need something, you figure out a way to say yes.”
I heard the Nate Silver interview on CBC1. He applies lots of common sense to a number of accurate polls, so he’s probably right. While polls do lie, if you combine them and apply a lot of common sense, they’re usually accurate.
America’s biggest and best paying employer is government, either directly or through trillions in subcontracts. Obama loves federally funded societies, so of course the millions who depend on fed money will vote for him.
Racially, non-whites hate whites, so any way they can stick it to them is a good thing, even if it’s bad for them. Obama’s federal money that buys them everything from cell phones to food happens to be good, so it’s a win/win.
Obama will win and the welfare state will grow. Homosexuals will marry and Christianity is dead. Pot will be legal and the town will get higher. People like me–of all colors, the other 50%–will what? Lose all respect for your god, government, society? Yeah, don’t ask me for jack, you will not get it.
America is dead. Welcome to the Third World America.
“….both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada….
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223…..
http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJUNnMXA_Lt
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
Yes Whatcomshared.
It’s been dead for a long time.
Hamburger, for the Court.
On March 1, 1974, a grand jury of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia returned an indictment charging seven named individuals [n3] with various offenses, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and to obstruct justice. Although he was not designated as such in the indictment, the grand jury named the President, among others, as an unindicted coconspirator…
Hamburgers biggest threat.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_O._Douglas
Tim is very right if the GOP loses but here’s a question; what does it mean for the D’s if the O takes one on the chin and it is a KO & not a TKO will that mean a major purge within the D party?
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
And thus was born…where Treason was legal, and American’s had their brains sucked out…
Go President Johnson, Clueless from Texas forever!
Why did Washington, put a bullit, between the eyes of Andre, and attempt to with Arnold?
http://hnn.us/articles/nixons-biggest-crime-was-far-far-worse-watergate
If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.
George Washington
Two of the Plumbers — former CIA agent E. Howard Hunt and ex-FBI man G. Gordon Liddy — devised a plan that involved firebombing the think tank. Cuban-American CIA assets who had worked with Hunt on anti-Castro operations would have been sent the scene dressed as D.C. firemen to “hit the vault,” according to Liddy, who said the plan was rejected the as too expensive:
“The White House wouldn’t spring for a fire engine.”
Hey Whatcomshard, when you say things like this,
“Racially, non-whites hate whites, so any way they can stick it to them is a good thing, even if it’s bad for them.”
It makes me think that you are a horrible racist. Now I know that’s not true. You couldn’t possibly be coming on here and saying that all brown people hate all white people, right?
Surely we left those sort of divisive views behind forty years ago.
Riley, you know our local drunk politicians, there here and there and everywhere. Surely, you must have seen the new local Trail of Beer’s.
The Bureau of Caucasian Affairs
United Native Americans (UNA) are proud to announce that it has bought the state of California from the Caucasians and is throwing it open to Native settlement. UNA bought California from three winos found wandering in San Francisco. UNA determined that the winos were the spokesmen for the Caucasians people of California. These winos promptly signed the treaty, which was written in Sioux, and sold California for three cases of wine, one bottle of gin, and four cases of beer.
Lehman L. Brightman, the Commissioner of Caucasians Affairs, has announced the following new policies: The Indians hereby give the Caucasians four large reservations of ten acres each at the following locations: Death Valley, The Utah Salt Flats, The Badlands of South Dakota,
and the Yukon in Alaska. These reservations shall belong to the Caucasians “for as long as the sun shines or the grass grows” (or until the Indians want it back.)
All land on the reservations, of course, will be held in trust for the Caucasians by the Bureau of Caucasian Affairs, and any Caucasians who wants to use his land in any way must secure permission from Commissioner Brightman.
Of course, Caucasians will be allowed to sell trades and handicrafts at stands by the highway. Each Caucasian will be provided annually with one blanket, one pair of tennis shoes, a supply of Spam, and a copy of The Life of Crazy Horse.
If you are competent enough, you will be able to be a BCA reservation superintendent. Applicants must have less than one year of education, must not speak English, must have an authoritarian personality, proof of dishonesty, and a certificate of incompetence. No Caucasians need apply.
Commissioner Brightman also announced the founding of four boarding schools, to which Caucasians youngsters will be sent at the age of six (6). “We want to take those kids far away from the backward culture of their parents,” he said. The schools will be located on Alcatraz Island; the Florida Everglades; Point Barrow, Alaska; and Hong Kong. All courses will be taught in Indian languages, and there will be demerits for anyone caught speaking English. All students arriving at the school will immediately be given IQ tests to determine their understanding of Indian Language and hunting skills.
Hospitals will be established for the reservations as follows:
Caucasians at Death Valley may go to the Bangor, Maine Hospital; those at the Utah Salt Flats may go to Juneau, Alaska Hospital; those at the Yukon may go to the Miami Beach Hospital; and those at the Badlands may go to the Hospital in Honolulu, Hawaii. Each hospital will have a staff of two part-time doctors and a part-time chiropractor who have all passed first aid tests. And each hospital will be equipped with a scalpel, a jack knife, a saw, a modern tourniquet, and a large bottle of aspirin.
In honor of the whites, many cities, street cars, and products will be given traditional Caucasian names.
A famous Native movie director has even announced that in his upcoming film, Custer’s Last Stand, he will use many actual Caucasians to play the parts of soldiers, speaking real English, although, of course, the part of Custer will be played by noted Native actor Wes Studi.
Certain barbaric Caucasian customs will, of course, not be allowed. Caucasians will not be allowed to practice their heathen religions, and will be required to attend Native ceremonies. Missionaries will be sent from each Nation to convert the Caucasians on the reservations. Caucasian churches will either be made into amusement parks or museums or will be torn down and the bricks and ornaments sold as souvenirs and curiosities.
Caucasian cemetaries will be deconstructed and all artifacts will be housed in museums. Skeletal remains of Anglos will be put on display and their skulls will be studied, measured, scrutinized, and analyzed so that Native people can determine just what is wrong with Caucasian people. Caucasians cemetery land will be distributed among people wishing to build roller skating rinks and stop-and-rob stores.
There will be two separate but distinct legal and judicial systems: one for Natives and one for Caucasians, but Natives will hold all the judicial seats, legislative seats, and will staff all police and fire departments. Caucasians can become police officers and fire fighters on their designated reservations but can only act in minor roles. Legal and judicial authority comes directly from the Bureau of Caucasian Affairs.
Several holidays will be developed to honor Anglo people’s contributions to society. To further honor them corporations and schools will be encouraged to develop pagents, festivals, sporting events, and for-profit items that can carry the images and names of the Caucasian people.
Educational books (history, archeology, paleotenology, astronomy, medicine, music, literature, art, etc.) will reflect the many contributions of Caucasian people on pages 1, 2, and part of page 3 of every book. The rest of the pages will focus strictly on Native history and contribution.
“….Obama has failed because he believes that American prosperity is created at the direction of a powerful central government. He has spent four years restricting freedom and enlarging the power of the state. Romney would restore our prosperity by reversing the debt-fueled state growth ruinously pursued by the previous two Presidents.
Economic data show that Americans have spent the last four years increasing their savings and reducing their debt. Their President has done the opposite. Mitt Romney proposes recovering from the recession in the same way American households have – by budgeting responsibly and planning for a future in which we are again prosperous and free of the burden of crushing debt.
Only Mitt Romney offers us this course. For the sake of our country and our children, we must take it.”
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20121104/OPINION01/121109685/1004/opinion
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
“…Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.
Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments….
There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney………….
http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
AFY!!theheelotsheepdog!!!
When, exactly, did this turn into a predominately racist filled blog?
Mr.Stark, Mr. Schwartz, and Ms. Shirley,
Sam Taylor wold tolerate a lot of things(from the likes of me even) but blatant racism isn’t one.
Someone should see to it that blatantly racist posts are deleted and the author(s) admonished and/or banished.
Is there an election tomorrow?
Worst Ever 44, where (D)id you go to school?
You ain’t seen Obama’s newest “Trail of Beers” or did you not read the reason in the Whatcom County Road Death Study on Haxton Way?
They got Solindra Bankruptcy lighting for $700,000.00 extra too.
Remember County Commissioner Haxton, just like Kremen, Just like Cagey, Just like Jefferson & Washington too.
Drunk Indians, running over Drunk Indians, read the County Study, now we got the new Trail of Beer’s from Lummi Headquarters on Chief Kiwina to the Silver Reef Casino?
Shovel Ready; Hope and Change we can live with, Didn’t you Vote Obama too!
The Community Reinvestment Act, or didn’t you the biig Red, White, and Blue sign at Haxton and Chief Kiwina. Build it and they can Drink!
The Great Black Chief in Washington, that ain’t racist, just go ask Obama what Cump(R) did for him, when the Great Chief, William “Tecumseh” Sherman, burned that Democratic Party to the Ground.
The 9-11 letter, to the Mayor of Atlanta(D)
http://www.rjgeib.com/thoughts/sherman/sherman-to-burn-atlanta.html
Of course he had to go deal with a few more screw ups, the Beauty Queen Custer himself.
After Custer had a little trouble running that comb through his scalp?
” but I think my father was only a commissary; still, he seems to have caught a fancy for the great chief of the Shawnees, “Tecumseh.”
Perry’s victory on Lake Erie was the turning-point of the Western campaign, and General Harrison’s victory over the British and Indians at the river Thames in Canada ended the war in the West, and restored peace and tranquillity to the exposed settlers of Ohio. My father at once resumed his practice at the bar, and was soon recognized as an able and successful lawyer. When, in 1816, my brother James was born, he insisted on engrafting the Indian name “Tecumseh” on the usual family list. My mother had already named her first son after her own brother Charles; and insisted on the second son taking the name of her other brother James, and when I came along, on the 8th of February, 1820, mother having no more brothers, my father succeeded in his original purpose, and named me William Tecumseh.
The bad men, red and yellow, black and white, they we precious in his sights!
http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=42&page=transcript
“Tecumseh” (in Shawnee, Tekoomsē, meaning “Shooting Star” or “Panther Across The Sky”, also known as Tecumtha or Tekamthi) was born about March 1768.
“As Pucksinwah his father, stared at the sky on this night, he saw a huge meteor streak across from the north, leaving a trail of greenish-white flame. It lasted for fully 20 seconds and was unlike anything he had ever seen before. This was the Panther spirit that the old men sometimes spoke of, and a good sign indeed. As the women around the fire talked excitedly and pointed to the heavens, a baby’s cry came from the shelter. Usually a child was not named for several days while the parents waited for a sign to indicate what the great spirit Moneto wished the child to be called, but this child must surely be named Tecumseh, “The Panther Passing Across.”
Racist, race to the bottom 44.
And worst 43?
What # was General Harrison?
How long in Office?
How long to Steal Mexico, and the San Juan Island’s with the nest Democrap in Charge?
If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.
William Tecumseh Sherman
AFY Says:
November 2nd, 2012 at 12:10 PM
“Romney’s message — a vote for Obama is a vote for more gridlock — seems to be getting through. Almost half of likely voters, 47 percent, think the Republican challenger would be better at ending the logjam, compared with 37 percent for Obama….”
Oddly enough, What with Mitt’s taped 47% remark that tanked him, he ended up with just what AFY’s poll predicted.. 47%.
Love the irony.